如果这地方的海拔不够高的话, 那么下游的水就会开始回涌。而在300KM 外的,诗巫、民丹莪(Bintangor)、泗里街(Sarikei),就要面对海水倒灌的风险。 如果拉让江被海水倒灌, 那么所有在江旁城镇的食用水,都会受到影响。
拉让江城镇的人最好祈祷,天天来下大暴风雨,加快水坝蓄水,因为这预测很快就会变成事实。 在博客Aniletto部落留言的读者这么说 :
Ong Eu Soon :
With a catchment area of 14,750 km², Bakun want to fill up the capacity of 43,800 million cubic meters which is bigger than the Three Gorges Dam’s capacity.
This is crazy and insane, the end result is the sharp decline of water level in the Balui River. There is not enough water to fill up the dam. If the impoundments is carry out in stages to avoid the sharp decline of water level at the downstream river and its tributaries, the dam forever will not be able to fill up.
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那就是说,拉让江很快就会变咸鱼场。
而且巴贡根本不能完全发电,因为补充的水不足够让水坝发电机全开。
Ong Eu Soon :
It is assume that the mean rainfall per annual is 4000mm, with catchment areas of 14,750 km2. The rainfall will be 59,000 million cubic meters. If the runoff is 70%, the total volume of water that will flow to Bakun dam is =14750×0.7x 4/1000 =41,300 million cubic meters.
To generate electricity, water need to flow out. Let say all 8 gates are use for dischage with rate of 15,000 m3/s. In one year 365 days, there is 365x24x60x60 =31,536,000 second. Total water discharge per annual will be 15,000×31,536,000=473,040 million cubic meters.
How can a mere 41,300 million cubic meters cope with the discharge of 473,040 million cubic meters?
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正确计算会有很大的出入, 不过简单来说, 在巴贡的计划书上,有许多用常识就会锉穿的谎话。推动发电机是必须有一定的流动水压。根据那留言者的初步计算,根本不够水让巴贡的8个发电机全开。 到底能开动多少呢? 大家就等着看吧。
不是有人说去砂拉越,利用巴贡的发电,来为铝提炼厂提供电力吗? 不过照砂拉越政府疯狂的建水坝的做法看来,巴贡的发电根本不够。
而这种种问题, 不需要等2011 年的国家稽查报告。 对砂拉越人来说, 灾难已经在眼前了。
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资料失准评估草率添下游风险
巴贡水坝破坏远大于经济效益
Dried up stretch below Bakun
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